Retail Media Networks in 2026: Growth, Measurement and EMEA Options

Retail media is now one of the largest channels in advertising. WARC Media forecasts that worldwide retail media investment will reach $200.4bn in 2026 and $223.4bn in 2027, when it will account for 15.2% of all global ad spend ¹. The same forecast carries a warning: growth is slowing, and the money is concentrated in very few hands.

For marketing leaders in Europe and the Middle East, the question is no longer whether to buy retail media, but where, how much, and how to tell whether it is working.

How big retail media networks are, and who takes the money

The headline growth hides a concentration problem. WARC's August 2026 forecast puts 2027 growth at 11.5%, but excluding Amazon it falls to 9.8%, the lowest rate since WARC began tracking the channel ¹. In France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK, Amazon took more than two-thirds of retail media spend ¹.

The US picture is similar. In its December 2025 forecast, EMARKETER put US retail media spend at $60.32bn in 2025, rising to $71.09bn in 2026, with Amazon and Walmart capturing 89% of the incremental spend in 2026 ².

Network (US, 2025)	Share of US retail media spend
Amazon Ads	79.7%
Walmart Connect	8.0%
Target Roundel	1.5%

Source: EMARKETER, December 2025 forecast ².

Amazon's own numbers show why. Its advertising business brought in $19.8bn in Q2 2026, up 26% from $15.7bn a year earlier ³. On the earnings call, Andy Jassy said Amazon brought 30 new advertisers to the NBA in its first year carrying games, and Amazon described traffic from its Sponsored Prompts format as 48% more likely to convert ³.

For most brands, retail media planning starts with Amazon; every other network has to earn its place with reach, data or formats Amazon lacks.

Off-site retail media: retailer data, other people's screens

On-site ads (sponsored products and display on the retailer's own site or app) remain the core. Growth is increasingly off-site: using a retailer's shopper data to target ads on social platforms, the open web, streaming TV and out-of-home.

A few signals of how far this has moved:

• EMARKETER notes that social advertising makes up nearly half of off-site retail media spend, and that Walmart's off-site ad business exceeds $1bn a year ².
• In September 2025, Amazon Ads and Netflix announced that Netflix's ad-supported inventory would become available to buy through Amazon DSP from Q4 2025, across 11 markets including the UK, France, Germany, Italy and Spain ⁴.
• WARC projects Amazon's non-retail ad business, Prime Video and Twitch, at $6.7bn in 2027 ¹.

The environment matters. An Ipsos study cited by WARC found memory encoding was 47% lower for ads on retailer platforms than in generic off-site environments, and that strong creative lifted short-term brand choice by 12% among undecided shoppers ¹. Retail sites suit conversion; brand-building messages may work harder off-site.

Measurement: what the IAB/MRC guidelines ask for

The main criticism of retail media has always been that each network marks its own homework. The IAB and the Media Rating Council (MRC) responded with the Retail Media Measurement Guidelines, finalised in January 2024 ⁵. They set out what a credible network should provide:

1. Standard viewability. Display ads count as viewable at 50% of pixels for one continuous second; video at 50% for two seconds. Custom thresholds must be reported alongside the MRC standard, not instead of it ⁵.
2. Disclosed attribution windows. The guidelines do not mandate one window, but require that windows are empirically supported, consistent and disclosed before measurement. Common digital windows are 3, 7, 14, 28 and 30 days ⁵.
3. Incrementality. Randomised controlled trials are the preferred method, with synthetic controls and matched-market tests as alternatives when properly validated ⁵.
4. Transparency. Networks should disclose methodologies, identity matching approach (deterministic, probabilistic or hybrid), any extrapolation, and invalid traffic filtering ⁵.
5. Granular reporting. Placement-level delivery data, SKU-level outcomes where relevant, and disclosure of any "halo" products counted as sales ⁵.

In Europe, IAB Europe published version 2 of its Commerce Media Measurement Standards in January 2026. It adds a formal definition of incrementality with approved methods, standard definitions of gross and net sales, new metrics for quick commerce, and a 30-day lookback window as the default. Networks could comply with either version during a grace period that ran until the end of July 2026, with audited compliance shown through IAB Europe's Retail Media Certification Programme ⁶.

A network that cannot explain its attribution window, incrementality method or invalid traffic filtering is asking for budget on trust.

Retail media in the Middle East

The Gulf market is earlier in its development but moving fast. A Communicate Online analysis from August 2026 cites McKinsey describing retail media in MENA as "still nascent" with accelerating momentum ⁷. The growth rates are high: IAB MENA, in its first estimate of the channel, found retail media grew by up to 40.5% in 2025 ⁸. Several networks are now worth evaluating:

• noon offers product ads, brand ads, display, managed display, CRM and social campaigns, and off-site out-of-home placements across the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and says more than 10,000 brands and sellers advertise with it ⁹.
• Majid Al Futtaim's Precision Media, the network behind Carrefour in the region, reports 450+ Carrefour stores across 14 countries, more than 600 million annual customers and 20.5 million loyalty members. A 2025 partnership with Publicis covered 212 digital screens across 25 Carrefour hypermarkets in the UAE ⁷.
• Careem is extending its in-app advertising onto the street. In December 2025 it partnered with Flyby to put LED screens on delivery bikes in Dubai areas such as Dubai Marina and Palm Jumeirah, with targeting by neighbourhood and time of day, and DSP and SSP integration in development ¹⁰.
• talabat has told investors that it expects investment in its talabat mart grocery business to be offset over time by higher advertising and non-merchandising revenue ¹¹. It reported 2025 GMV of $9.5bn, though it does not break out ad revenue in that update ¹¹.
• Amazon in the region offers a Marketing Mix Modelling feed in Saudi Arabia and the UAE and conversion-path reporting in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait ⁷.

Most of these figures are self-reported, and few regional networks have published compliance with the IAB/MRC or IAB Europe standards. That does not make them poor buys, but it does mean brands should ask the measurement questions directly and run their own tests.

How to plan retail media budgets

A sensible plan treats retail media as a mix of three jobs rather than one line item:

• Defend the digital shelf. Sponsored product and search ads on the networks where you already sell, judged on incremental sales, not return on ad spend alone.
• Use retail data off-site. Buy social, video and streaming audiences built on purchase data, but test them against your existing targeting before scaling.
• Reach shoppers in store. In the Gulf especially, in-store screens and delivery-fleet out-of-home are becoming addressable. Treat them as experiments with clear holdout groups.

Where networks offer clean room access, use it to connect retail exposure data with your own CRM and sales data rather than relying solely on the network's dashboard.

Key takeaways

• WARC forecasts global retail media at $200.4bn in 2026, but growth outside Amazon is slowing to its lowest rate on record ¹.
• Amazon dominates both the US and the largest European markets, and its Q2 2026 ad revenue reached $19.8bn ¹³.
• Off-site retail media extends retailer data into social, streaming and out-of-home, including Netflix inventory via Amazon DSP ²⁴.
• IAB/MRC and IAB Europe standards give buyers a concrete checklist on viewability, attribution windows and incrementality ⁵⁶.
• Gulf networks such as noon, Precision Media, Careem and talabat are building ad businesses, but most performance claims are still self-reported ⁷⁹¹⁰¹¹.

What this means for your brand

• Start with the networks where your products already sell and your customers already shop, then expand off-site once on-site results are proven incremental.
• Ask every network for its attribution window, incrementality method and invalid traffic approach, using the IAB/MRC guidelines as the reference.
• Run at least one holdout or matched-market test per major network each year before increasing budget.
• In the Middle East, pilot regional networks with defined tests rather than broad commitments, and bring the results into one dashboard alongside your other channels so retail media is judged on the same terms.

Sources

1. Global retail media ad market to reach $200.4bn in 2026 and $223.4bn in 2027, but growth slows - MediaBrief (WARC Media data), August 2026
2. FAQ on retail media networks: How marketers should allocate budgets in 2026 - EMARKETER, January 2026
3. Amazon Crushes Earnings And Reaches Almost $20 Billion In Q2 Ad Revenue - AdExchanger, July 2026
4. Amazon Ads and Netflix partner to offer programmatic buying on Netflix's ads plan - Amazon Ads, September 2025
5. IAB/MRC Retail Media Measurement Guidelines - IAB and Media Rating Council, January 2024
6. IAB Europe Releases Updated Commerce (Incl. Retail) Media Standards & Flexi Ad Sizes Guidelines for Retail Media Networks - IAB Europe, January 2026
7. Retail media in the GCC: From digital shelf space to a new growth engine - Communicate Online, August 2026
8. MENA digital advertising market surges to $8.2bn in 2025: IAB MENA - BroadcastPro ME, June 2026
9. noon ads: one-stop shop for leading ads solutions - noon, accessed October 2026
10. Careem links in-app advertising to smart OOH with Flyby - Campaign Middle East, December 2025
11. talabat posts strong 2025 growth, plans $100m investment - Gulf Business, February 2026

Figures and product details are as reported by the sources listed, at the time of writing. Platforms change quickly, so check the latest documentation before acting on any single number.